In the midst of the busiest week on the NHL calendar nobody is getting less sleep than the Florida Panthers, just ask Matthew Tkachuk.
The Stanley Cup champs aren’t done having fun and neither is their front office but have no doubts, between eating pasta meals in Lord Stanley, Roberto Luongo and the rest of Panthers management are nailing down an offseason plan to contend in 2025.
Those conversations start with general manager Bill Zito, who’s got decisions to make on two pending free agents that featured prominently during the Cup run. Forward Sam Reinhart is fresh off a 57 goal season and Brandon Montour might be the top blueliner available on the market.
From a glance, re-signing Reinhart would appear to be a larger challenge for Zito considering that type of scoring is virtually impossible to find in trades let alone free agency. And yet, all signs point to Reinhart and Florida trending towards a deal before the 28-year-old makes it to July 1.
Where that leaves Montour is unclear, but it might not be in Florida. If Reinhart’s cap-hit comes in at the rumoured $9.5-million, that leaves the Panthers roughly $10-million to work with. While that’s more than enough to cover a Montour signing there’s also restricted-free-agent (RFA) Anton Lundell to worry about, and it’s hard to imagine his annual-average-value (AAV) doesn’t start with a four.
As mentioned earlier, Montour is arguably the top unrestricted-free-agent (UFA) defender and at worst he’s number two behind Brady Skjei. It would therefore be similarly tough to envision Montour’s contract carrying an AAV of at less than $7-million. Unless Zito can make a trade of real significance, like moving goaltender spencer knight and his $4.5-million cap-hit, the math isn’t in favour of Montour continuing on as a Panther.
He’s earned the right to cash in on a big deal, based on the offensive track record he’s built over the last two years. Montour’s 24 goals and 106 points are 13th among all defenders going back to the start of 2022-23. The caveat’s that a good portion of his productivity comes on the powerplay. since 2022-23 no defenceman averages more PP time-on-ice (TOI) than Montour at 4:05 and his 50 points with the man-advantage rank seventh.
This setup worked for Florida and Montour because of Gustav Forsling’s emergence and the defensive steadiness of players like Aaron Ekblad and Niko Mikkola. Head coach Paul Maurice plays Montour a ton, 23:27 this year to be exact, but those minutes aren’t against hard matchups, or starting in the defensive zone much.
It’s safe to say Montour’s production is sustainable even on other teams, but unless he’s insulated by two or three defensive options like he was in Florida it might not be conducive to team success.
That being said Montour will have a long list of suitors anyways. Effective powerplay quarterbacks are hard to come by and there’s not many of them in 2024 free agency.
The 30-year-old is expected to receive offers at roughly $7.5-million annually for five to seven years, that type of contract doesn’t have many recent comparables but there’s some in that ballpark. Morgan Rielly re-signed with the Toronto Maple Leafs in 2021 as a 27-year-old at $7.5-million for eight years, he occupies a similar role to Montour as Toronto’s best offensive blueliner although Montour would be signing at an older age. Last summer Dmitry Orlov signed an unusual deal with the Carolina Hurricanes that paid him $7.75-million but only for two years. The cap-hit is representative of what Montour could fetch and Orlov, who was 31 at the time, only had trouble getting term because of the flat cap. With the salary cap finally rising to $88-million, Montour won’t have to settle for a short term deal, no matter where he ends up.
Calgary Flames
The Calgary Flames defence core was very recently one of the best in the NHL but that’s no longer the case. Outside of Rasmus Andersson and Mackenzie Weegar, it’s a whole bunch of question marks, especially regarding offence. Andersson is a capable powerplay option but the team results weren’t their as the Flames PP finished at a dismal 17.9%, 26th in the NHL. The Flames acquired Weegar from Florida in the now infamous Huberdeau-Tkachuk deal and could reunite him with Montour to form a solid pairing.
Utah Hockey Club
This team is in dire need of defenders, no matter their playstyle. With five RFAs and a single defenceman under contract in Vladislav Kolyachonok, it’s a safe assumption that Utah is targeting backend help. Sure, Sean Durzi is growing into a great offensive option but as currently constructed he represents almost all of their blueline production, that’s not sustainable.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Morgan Rielly has run the Toronto Maple Leafs powerplay for a majority of the Matthews era, but it feels like every season, usually around February, Toronto’s PP plummets in effectiveness and they try to make it work with another defenceman instead. Those alternatives have included Rasmus Sandin, Jake Muzzin, Timothy Liljegren and Jake McCabe but none have been a perfect fit. It comes down to the fact Rielly doesn’t possess a threatening shot, he can sift pucks through and look for a deflection in front but that becomes easy to gameplan for when it’s his only option. over the last two seasons Montour has the 14th most slapshot goals with seven and has put 118 slappers on net, that’s sixth most. It’s not a perfect fit and Toronto doesn’t have the same defensive depth to insulate him in the same way Florida did. However if Toronto wants to mend their powerplay woes, Montour is a prime candidate to help.
Want to catch up on the biggest stories in hockey and more? Then tune into our premiere NHL podcast: PuckPod by BD Sports!
BD Sports 