The Vegas Golden Knights find themselves at a crossroads. Tight walk the cap through trades and retain their pending free agents (UFAs) or let them loose in favour of internal replacements.
It’s a dilemma that boils down to a quartet of forwards; original misfits Jonathan Marchessault and William Carrier, Michael Amadio and Chandler Stephenson. Realistically the 2023 Conn Smythe winner in Marchessault is the best of the bunch, even at 33 years old, and there just isn’t enough cap to go around for the rest without some roster surgery. Assuming a deal with Marchessault doesn’t fall through the cracks, Carrier, Amadio and Stephenson are bound for the open market and it’s the latter name in the group that will command the biggest deal.
Stephenson’s a two-time Stanley Cup champion having won as a youthful depth option on the Washington Capitals in 2018 before factoring in as a pivotal member of the Golden Knights run in 2023.
This season though, things didn’t go smoothly for Vegas or Stephenson. From opening night puck drop in October through the end of 2023, Stephenson only amassed six goals and 18 points in 33 games. That’s 0.55 points-per-game (P/GP), a far cry from the 0.8 P/GP he’s eclipsed the last couple seasons.
Credit where it’s due however, as Stephenson picked up his pace from Jan. 1 onwards, producing at a 0.79 P/GP to finish the year with respectable totals of 16 goals and 51 points. His late season run coincided with the Golden Knights holding onto a playoff berth and a chance to defend their title, only to fall the Dallas Star in six games though.
Stephenson had a rough series, managing one assist and just seven shots all the while dropping 46 seconds in time-on-ice compared to the regular season from 18:30 to 17:48.
This rollercoaster of a season is going to cost him materially in free agency, but not a ton. It’ll be the difference between scoring a homerun and a stand up triple.
A lot of that comes down to the fact there’s only a handful of top-nine centre UFAs. There’s a good chance Stephenson locks down the biggest deal for a centre outside of Elias Lindholm.
He’s also one of the speediest options a team could fetch this summer. According to NHL EDGE, Stephenson recorded 217 speed bursts at 20 miles per hour or faster. That ranks in the 95th percentile for all skaters in 2023-24. Throw in the fact he plays powerplay, penalty kill, and is comfortable on the wing, there’s a lot to like with Stephenson.
When projecting a Stephenson contract, Mikael Granlund is the best comparable. As a 29-year-old, he signed a four deal with the Nashville predators in 2021 that netted him $5-million annually, or 6.14% of the cap that season. When applied to the 2024 cap of $88-million, 6.14% equates to $5.4-million, that’s a good gauge for Stephenson’s annual-average-value (AAV). Term might be the deciding factor for where Stephenson lands and with the centre market being so shallow, there’s sure to be a number of teams vying for Stephenson. Conversations could start at four years but escalate to six when all is said and done.
Boston Bruins
It’s no secret the Boston Bruins are looking for a centre, that’s been a reality since Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci called it careers. It’s also no secret they’ve had trade interest in Elias Lindholm previously and he’s hitting free agency as well. But in the event the Bruins can’t strike a deal with the Swede, Stephenson could be a great consolation prize.
Montreal Canadiens
Another team that’s been looking to bolster their centre depth for what feels like forever. It’s mixed bag at centre for the Montreal Canadiens outside of Nick Suzuki. There’s Alex Newhook and Kirby Dach, but the former struggled in the faceoff dot winning just 45% of them (compared to Stephenson’s 53% and Dach needs to avoid injury before earning a second-line centre role. With Stephenson the Habs could avoiding rushing their youth into hard minutes.
Vancouver Canucks
There’s a pattern here, everyone knows the Vancouver Canucks are looking to make a Jake Guentzel sized splash on July 1. But there’s no guarantee they land him, and there doesn’t seem to be any optimism around Lindholm returning. There’s even been reports of interest from Vancouver in Martin Necas of the Carolina Hurricanes. Although that move would cost assets and more dollars through an extension compared to signing Stephenson, granted Necas is better and has upside. It’s not a perfect fit, but free agency rarely goes to plan for any team.
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