This NHL offseason has been unusually slow with free agent signings in the middle of August that were expected to be done deals merely days after the start of free agency on July 13th (Nazem Kadri, Paul Stastny, and Phil Kessel). Now a week into September, 11 restricted-free-agents (RFA) remain unsigned with just two weeks left until NHL training camps begin. Among the aforementioned RFAs is 22-year-old defenceman Rasmus Sandin; a member of the Toronto Maple Leafs whose General Manager Kyle Dubas has spoken highly of in media appearances over the summer. The question remains as to what’s preventing the two sides from agreement on a deal ahead of a crucial season for Sandin’s developmental curve and the Maple Leafs organization at large. The parameters of Sandin’s next contract will have a ripple effect on the Leafs roster as they’re currently operating at roughly $1.5M above the $82.5M salary cap presuming they use a 22-man roster on opening night. Barring the unlikely chance the Maple Leafs decide to ice the bare minimum of 20 players to fit under the cap, a trade is on its way. Let’s delve into 3 combinations of moves Dubas might select from to finalize his 2022-23 Leafs roster.

The Squeeze: Trade Justin Holl ($2M x 1 year), Sign Rasmus Sandin ($1M x 1 year)

Justin Holl’s name has been swirling in trade rumours for longer than a season so it’s natural to assume he’d be the odd man out to make room for an emerging Sandin. Holl wouldn’t fetch much in return through a trade; a 5th or 6th round pick from a team needing a bottom pairing Defenceman (ARI, MTL, and STL come to mind) is a realistic expectation. Trading Holl speaks more to Sandin’s abilities than Holl’s lack thereof, he’d simply be a cap casualty. When it comes to Sandin and the proposed $1M x 1 year contract, there’s reason to believe both the team and player would see the deal as fair. From Dubas’ perspective, replacing Holl with Sandin would provide the Maple Leafs a blend of veteran savvy and youthful talent on their blue line that’s unmatched in the Matthews Era. In Sandin’s case, a 1 year ‘prove it’ deal would grant him arbitration rights next summer as an RFA. He could be rewarded handsomely if he performs well in 2022-23, but that brings us to the main problem with ‘The Squeeze’. Would Sandin really be set up for success in this scenario? Sandin’s agent; Lewis Gross has let it be known that opportunity and fit are just as important to his client as the financial terms of his next contract. The Swedish defenceman is a left shot who wants to play on his natural side but currently falls below veterans Morgan Rielly, Jake Muzzin, and Mark Giordano on the Leafs depth chart. Trading Holl doesn’t address the positional fit Sandin is seeking nor does it provide much opportunity by way of ice-time (likely 16-18 minutes). Additionally, signing Sandin for 1 year would make him arbitration eligible next summer, as stated earlier. This would potentially leave the terms of Sandin’s next contract out of Dubas’ hands, or let him walk away for nothing as a free agent. It’s a risk Dubas might not be able to afford as every cap saving will go towards trying to extend the reigning Hart Trophy recipient; Auston Matthews, come July 2023. Lastly ‘The Squeeze’ would leave Dubas with 1 healthy scratch. Not ideal for a roster that boasts several players in their mid- to late-30s. That being said, there isn’t a single perfect roster in the NHL and ‘The Squeeze’ would be no different, requiring compromise from player and team alike. Below is what the Leafs roster might resemble on opening night if ‘The Squeeze’ took place.

‘The Squeeze’

Roster Size	Salary Cap
13F / 6D / 2G (21 skaters / 23 skaters)	Cap Hit: $82.5M / $82.3M (Space: $200k)

Left Wing	Center	Right Wing
Micheal Bunting	Auston Matthews	Mitch Marner
Alex Kerfoot	John Tavares	William Nylander
Pierre Engvall	David Kampf	Calle Järnkrok
Wayne Simmonds	Adam Gaudette	Nicolas Aubé-Kubel
Nicholas Robertson

Left Defence	Right Defence
Morgan Rielly	TJ Brodie
Jake Muzzin	Rasmus Sandin
Mark Giordano	Timothy Liljegren

Goaltenders
Matt Murray
Ilya Samsonov

Conventional Thinking: Trade Justin Holl ($2M x 1 year), Trade Alex Kerfoot ($3.5M x 1 year) and Sign Rasmus Sandin ($2.6M x 3 years)

We’ve covered how Justin Holl contributes to the Leafs cap equation already so let’s move on to the other trade piece of this scenario; Alex Kerfoot. While primarily playing left wing last season Kerfoot attained career highs in both assists (38) and points (51). In a similar vein to Holl, Kerfoot has been brought up in trade talks seemingly since his arrival back in 2019. However, one would expect Kerfoot to hold higher trade value than Holl. A middle-six playmaking forward that can factor in on both special teams is nothing to scoff at; it’s a description that fits Kerfoot aptly along with former leafs forward Connor Brown. The latter was traded this offseason from the Ottawa Senators to the Washington Capitals in exchange for a future 2nd round pick. We can estimate Brown’s value as a consistent 15-20 goal scorer and 40-50 point producer to reflect that of Kerfoot’s. The two forwards also share nearly identical cap hits ($3.5M for Kerfoot, $3.6M for Brown) with a year left of term each, further reinforcing the similarities between the two. That being said, the return in a Kerfoot trade isn’t very important to Dubas as cap relief is what reigns supreme these days. A Kerfoot exit would leave a hole in the Leafs top-six that would require internal replacing. the leading candidate to line-up alongside John Tavares would be 21-year-old left wing Nicholas Robertson. He’s had several auditions with the big club but for a multitude of reasons (injury, poor-play, lack of opportunity higher in the line-up) Robertson hasn’t been able to stick. He’ll get a fair shot at a roster spot this season regardless of a Kerfoot trade occurring but it’s the kind of move that would truly give Robertson the spotlight. There’s optimism to be had about a hypothetical Robertson-Tavares-Nylander line; as Robertson was a solid player for the AHL Toronto Marlies in 2021-22 notching 16 goals and 12 assists for 28 points in as many games. If you’re a Robertson skeptic, your beliefs aren’t unfounded. Questions remain about Robertson’s wrecking ball play style that has seen him sidelined by knee and leg injuries in his brief time as a professional player. Work ethic isn’t a concern as much as whether he’s hustling to the correct spots on the ice. Other options for the 2nd-line left wing role are new additions Calle Järnkrok and Adam Gaudette, but neither feel like any more of a sure thing than Robertson. Dubas has built this roster around four forwards (Matthews, Marner, Tavares, Nylander) and it would be very on brand for him to entrust the ‘core four’ with onboarding a new member if it meant securing Sandin on a 3 year deal at a reasonable cap-hit. ‘Conventional Thinking’ says $2.6M x 3 years would be a win for Dubas and Sandin alike. The number was chosen deliberately, with Sandin’s closest comparables in mind. Defencemen Adam Boqvist (CBJ), Henri Jokiharju (BUF), and Alex Romanov (NYI) all signed 3 year deals with their respective clubs in the past 12 months at an annual average value (AAV) of $2.6M in Boqvist’s case, and $2.5M for the other two. In this scenario, Sandin would presumably have no financial qualms with the deal, but still wouldn’t be playing on his natural side. The deal would be enticing from Dubas’ end mainly due to the 3 year term which would keep Sandin cost-controlled through the 2024 season (where Matthews could reach UFA status). For a more comprehensive breakdown between Sandin and his comparables, refer to the chart below, followed by another mock roster.

Player	Age	Height / Weight	Shoots	GP / G / A / PTS	TOI	Contract
Rasmus Sandin	22	5’11” / 183 lbs	Left	88 / 6 / 22 / 28	16:04	RFA
Adam Boqvist	22	5’11” / 179 lbs	Right	128 / 17 / 34 / 51	15:24	$2.6Mx3
Alex Romanov	22	6’01 / 209 lbs	Left	133 / 4 / 15 / 19	18:12	$2.5Mx3
Henri Jokiharju	23	6’0 / 195 lbs	Right	213 / 10 / 44 / 54	19:05	$2.5Mx2

‘Conventional Thinking’

Roster Size	Salary Cap
13F / 7D / 2G (22 skaters / 23 skaters)	Cap Hit: $82M / $82.5M (Space: $500k)

Left Wing	Center	Right Wing
Micheal Bunting	Auston Matthews	Mitch Marner
Nicholas Robertson	John Tavares	William Nylander
Pierre Engvall	David Kampf	Calle Järnkrok
Wayne Simmonds	Adam Gaudette	Nicolas Aubé-Kubel
	Alex Steeves

Left Defence	Right Defence
Morgan Rielly	TJ Brodie
Jake Muzzin	Rasmus Sandin
Mark Giordano	Timothy Liljegren
Jordie Benn

Goaltenders
Matt Murray
Ilya Samsonov

Let’s Get Wacky: Trade Justin Holl ($2M x 1 year) OR Alex Kerfoot ($3.5M x 1 year) and Trade Rasmus Sandin (RFA)

Let’s. Get. Wacky. Rasmus Sandin is at the crux of Dubas’ cap conundrum so if you trade him, no more conundrum! Right!? Not so simple, Sandin is an important piece of the Maple Leafs roster, he represents future wins along with his expected contributions this upcoming season. Assuming Dubas would entertain trading Sandin, it might be for a player of similar age and potential impact as Sandin. Just two weeks ago, GM of the Detroit Red Wings; Steve Yzerman, signed 22-year-old winger Filip Zadina to a $1.825M x 3 year deal, that’s at very least the type of player Dubas would want in return for Sandin. Other players that might be available in a swap are 22-year-old forward Barrett Hayton (ARI), 21-year-old forward Nils Höglander (VAN) and 22-year-old defenceman Nils Lundkvist (NYR). There are two other forwards that fit the mould of player the Leafs might covet in 23-year-old Martin Necas (CAR) and 22-year-old Isac Lundeström (ANA) but similarly to Zadina, they signed 3 year deals over the summer and are likely unavailable unless things go sideways in-season. Of the presented options, Nils Höglander is my preference. He’s undersized but tenacious and has flashes of brilliant skill. From Vancouver’s point of view, Sandin would inject offence into a blue line that beside Quinn Hughes is anemic offensively. There was talk of Höglander not being viewed favourably by Canucks coach Bruce Boudreau during the 2021-22 season and while nothing of substance has been reported since, it’s something worth keeping an eye on as training camp looms. Below is a hypothetical roster that reflects Kerfoot and Sandin being moved, and Höglander brought in.

‘Let’s Get Wacky’

Roster Size	Salary Cap
14F / 7D / 2G (23 skaters / 23 skaters)	Cap Hit: $82.3M / $82.5M (Space: $200k)

Left Wing	Center	Right Wing
Micheal Bunting	Auston Matthews	Mitch Marner
Nils Höglander	John Tavares	William Nylander
Pierre Engvall	David Kampf	Calle Järnkrok
Wayne Simmonds	Adam Gaudette	Nicolas Aubé-Kubel
Nicholas Robertson	Alex Steeves

Left Defence	Right Defence
Morgan Rielly	TJ Brodie
Jake Muzzin	Justin Holl
Mark Giordano	Timothy Liljegren
Jordie Benn

Goaltenders
Matt Murray
Ilya Samsonov

Closing Thoughts

There technically isn’t a hard deadline by which Dubas must work to finalize his roster, but there might as well be one. If a Sandin deal isn’t consummated by the beginning of the regular season, a trade will quite literally become likelier with each passing day. It boils down to the fact that RFA contracts signed in season are subject to pro-rated cap hits. In much simpler terms, Sandin’s in-season cap hit would be higher than otherwise expected. The Leafs are already hurting for cap space and any unnecessary salary would handicap Dubas’ ability to make moves at the trade deadline. Leafs fans might already be accustomed to this cap quirk if they remember William Nylander’s two month long contract holdout. His cap hit jumped from just under $7M to above $10M during the 2018-19 season, the waiting game isn’t an option for Dubas this time around, a trade of some form is expected within the next month it’s only a matter of who’s involved.

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