Matt Roy is no stranger to flying under the radar, tracing back to his NHL draft day in 2015 where he was picked 194th overall in the seventh round by the Los Angeles Kings.
Fast forward nine years later and Roy is once again underrated, this time heading into 2024 free agency.
Sure, there won’t be 193 players signed before Roy on July 1 but the blueliner’s name isn’t expected to be among the first off the board at noon, and there’s an argument that it should.
The now 29-year-old’s first full season came in 2019-20 where the Kings immediately entrusted him with over 18 minutes of time-on-ice (TOI). That responsibility has grown to the 20:54 TOI he logged this season. Particularly in the last three years, Roy has established himself as a formidable second-pairing defender, contributing in all facets of the game.
He’s mobile, but still boasts a solid frame at six-foot-one and 200 pounds and that’s allowed him to defend effectively at even-strength and on the penalty kill. To that point; among defencemen who’ve played in 100 games or more since 2021-22, Roy is 16th in blocked shots with 453 (31st in BkS/60 at 5.86) and 41st in total hits with 395. Narrowing in on just 2023-24, he’s seventh in blocks (197) and 34th in hits (152).
Meanwhile in the offensive zone, Roy isn’t afraid to shoot the puck. He ranks 40th in shots on goal over the last three seasons with 423. And it’s not just about quantity, according to MoneyPuck Roy’s seven high danger chances in 2023-24 were second most by a defender, tied with Mario Ferraro and beat only by Cale Makar. When combining high and medium danger chances, Roy’s tally of 18 is seventh league-wide.
It’s not all rosy though, there’s two aspects to Roy’s game that will generate some cause for concern. He posted a team worst penalty differential of +22 this season, 38th worst by a blueliner overall. Lastly Roy is prone to giveaways, with 52 on the year being the 27th most by any defender.
Overall there’s a lot to like about Roy’s game, he’s physically involved and engaged on offense. When healthy he’s a lock to play 20-plus minutes a night while scoring five goals and 25 points over a season. His penalty differential and giveaway totals are definitely something to be weary of but on the whole Roy would be a positive addition to any team’s defence core.
There hasn’t been much noise around Roy possibly re-signing with the Kings, but that says more about them opposed to him. Los Angeles has Brandt Clarke on the way, even if that’s been said for three summers counting, and 23-year-old Jordan Spence is trajecting upwards after a solid first full NHL season, he’ll be expected to fill Roy’s role for a fraction of the price.
With the Kings contingency plan in place, Roy is expected to hit the open market and there should a plethora of suitors for his services.
When it comes to projecting his deal, an annual-average-value (AAV) between $5.5-million and $6-million on five or six years of term makes sense based on recent comparables. In 2020 The Toronto Maple Leafs signed a then 30-year-old TJ Brodie to a four year deal worth $5-million annually, working out to 6.14% of the cap at the time. And just two days ago Dylan DeMelo extended with Winnipeg for four years at $4.9-million AAV (5.57% of the cap). Considering the circumstances of the Brodie signing (Covid plus the flat cap) and that DeMelo didn’t get to market, on top of the fact Roy is a year younger and just the slightest bit larger, he rightfully should cost that slight bit more.
Nashville Predators
General manager Barry Trotz’s roster is currently sitting $3-million below the cap floor, meaning he has $26-million to work with this summer. With no important restricted-free-agents (RFAs) on the books and a pressing need for blueline help after dealing Ryan McDonagh back to the Tampa Bay Lightning, Matt Roy and the Nashville Predators seems like a match.
Utah Hockey Club
There’s no team in the NHL with more cap space than Utah, they actually have more cap space than actual dollars spent at the moment ($42.3-million spent and $42.5-million in space). That being said, they also have the least amount of blueliners under contract; it’s Vladislav Kolyachonok and five RFAs. It’s impossible to predict what Utah will do in free agency because of all that flexibility but surely they’ll be spending a good chunk on their backend.
Toronto Maple Leafs
The aforementioned TJ Brodie is on his way out of Toronto and general manager Brad Treliving has spoke about wanting to reconfigure his blueline going back to last summer. Roy would instantly become Toronto’s best right-handed option not only right now, but in the Matthews era. As noted previously Roy is a frequent shooter who isn’t limited to wristers, in fact Roy’s 97 slap shots since 2021-22 is miles ahead of any Leafs blueliner over the same timeframe (Liljegren is second with 59). Offense from the blueline is something Toronto desperately needs and Roy would contribute greatly in that department.
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